NBA Playoffs: Picking the Winner of Each 1st Round Series

The play-in tournament is over, and the 16-team playoff field is finally set. Now the playoffs are about to begin, with many compelling storylines to follow. The NBA talent pool is more international than ever, headlined by elite players such as Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Victor Wembanyama. The global nature of the sport will be reflected through the journeys these players embark on as they lead their respective squads deep into the playoffs.

The 1st round of the playoffs has sometimes been described as a sort of phony war, with the outcomes for the most part not in question as the top teams warm up and get ready for the business end of the postseason. Yet in recent seasons, more upsets have taken place, with 7 and 8 seeds causing havoc and sending favorites home early.

Without any further preamble, these are my picks for all eight first-round matchups.

Western Conference

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs (8) Phoenix Suns

The defending champs face the Phoenix Suns in the first-ever matchup between these two teams. The Suns have surprised everyone and proven that a balanced team-oriented approach is a more sound strategy for sustained success compared to relying on superstars. Led by Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks, with young players like Collin Gillespie and Jalen Green playing strong basketball, this team plays as a cohesive unit on both sides of the court.

The Suns have had a strong season that has restored Suns fans' hope in the direction of their team, but falling to the 8 seed means that they will have to face the Thunder. OKC is rested and hungry to defend their title, and will not allow this series to go longer than necessary. A third straight 1st round sweep might be on the horizon for the champs.

Thunder in 4

(2) San Antonio Spurs vs (7) Portland Trailblazers

Third-year phenom Victor Wembanyama has taken the basketball world by storm, earning the moniker of alien. He even managed to get himself into the MVP discussion towards the end of the regular season. This will be the first postseason run for the French giant, and with a strong roster around him, this could be the start of a legendary run for Wemby and the Spurs.

As formidable as the Spurs look, don't sleep on the Blazers. This is a young athletic roster that has been playing well recently and has nothing to lose. Their best player is Deni Avdija, who has had an All-Star worthy year in large part due to his ability to draw fouls and shoot free throws. I can see at least a game or two where Avdija manages to shoot an insane amount of free throws and gets Wemby in foul trouble. The Spurs will win, but it won't be easy.

Spurs in 6

(3) Denver Nuggets vs (6) Minnesota Timberwolves

This matchup has quietly become one of the most box-office rivalries in the sport. These two teams played on Christmas, a game which saw Jokic drop a 56 point triple double in an overtime classic that may have been the most thrilling of the year. The Nuggets and Wolves last saw each other in the playoffs in 2024, when the Wolves bounced the Nuggets in 7 games and derailed their back-to-back campaign.

This has been an uneven year for both teams, with injuries depleting their rosters and disrupting momentum. Nevertheless, both rosters seem to be getting healthy at the right time. Anthony Edwards always plays his best in the playoffs, and he has a knack for tormenting the Nuggets in big games. It's tempting to pick an upset here, but Jokic has been playing at such a high level that it's hard to see him getting bounced in Round 1.

Nuggets in 6

(4) Los Angeles Lakers vs (5) Houston Rockets

Two of basketball's elder statesmen take center stage for this high-profile showdown. The Lakers and Rockets have been duking it out in the playoffs for more than four decades. In the 80s it was Kareem Abdul Jabbar and Hakeem Olajuwon, and now LeBron and Kevin Durant will see each other one more time.

At full strength, the Lakers would have the slight edge, but they won't be able to count on Luka Doncic and Austin Reeves. The Lakers will miss their two leading scorers, forcing LeBron to do his best Back to the Future act. Houston is a frustrating team with too many flaws to be considered a true title contender, but for this series they should have enough. It won't be a sweep, but this should not take very long.

Rockets in 5

Eastern Conference

(1) Detroit Pistons vs (8) Orlando Magic

Two young defense-oriented squads will face each other in this series, looking to start what they hope is a deep postseason run. It is remarkable how much these two teams have struggled for the past 15 years: the Magic have not gotten out of the 1st round since 2010; for the Pistons, they have had to wait since 2008. These are two of the longest droughts in the NBA; one of these teams will finally win a playoff series again.

When making predictions, it can be very easy to just go chalk and pick all the favorites. This is the default tendency for many, myself included. Not this year. I am picking an upset that will not be very popular. Why would it be? The Magic have stunk for most of the year, and up until last night nobody could be certain they would even make the playoffs. Yet people forget that before the season, it was the Magic who were a trendy pick to take a massive jump and compete in a wide-open East. It didn't turn out that way in the regular season, yet here they are, in the playoffs and facing a Detroit team that is just as inexperienced. Both teams are built similarly, playing tough aggressive defense while often struggling on offense. I think this series will be a slog characterized by physical play and long scoring droughts. The main stars will be critical for each team, and as great as Cade Cunningham has been all year long, Paolo Banchero may be heating up at just the right time. I think this goes 7, with Orlando taking it by a hair. I'll probably be wrong, but I gotta pick at least one underdog.

Magic in 7

(2) Boston Celtics vs (2) Philadelphia 76ers

You could argue this is the oldest rivalry in the NBA. Boston and Philadelphia have been seeing each other in the playoffs since the 60s. There is no love lost between the two cities.

The Celtics and 76ers have played three playoff series in recent years, with the Celtics winning each time. This year the Celtics will face a Philly team in transition. With Joel Embiid likely unavailable for this series, it will be too tall a task for Philly's young playmakers. The only reason why I don't have this as a sweep is because of the Celtics being notoriously unable to complete sweeps of inferior teams, likely due to inconsistent shooting and shot selection.

Celtics in 5

(3) New York Knicks vs (6) Atlanta Hawks

There has been no team that has been more dogged by skepticism all year than the Knicks. In spite of having their beast season statistically in many years, it still doesn't seem to be quite enough. They face a Hawks team that has impressed since trading away Trae Young. They have a young promising core led by Jalen Johnson, and are coached by Quin Snyder, who is one of the NBA's most underrated and consistently successful head coaches.

This will be a good series, and one in which the Knicks can't afford to not play their best basketball. I can't help but wonder whether the trepidation over the Knicks has gone too far. Sure there are concerns, but this has still been one of the most consistent NBA teams over the last three seasons. Jalen Brunson has proven that he can step up his game in the playoffs. They won the NBA Cup, and they have a fierce competitor in Jose Alvarado who can come off the bench and impact the game with his hustle and intensity. Knicks fans have a lot to look forward to this postseason.

Knicks in 6

(4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (5) Toronto Raptors

Much has been made of James Harden and what him being on this Cavs team means, both for the organization's trajectory as well as for Harden himself. Yet for this series, I don't see this being too much of a factor. The Cavs match up well with the Raptors, and Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and friends should be more than enough for the Cavs to prevail, regardless of how Harden does.

The Raptors had a successful season under head coach Darko Rajakovic, with several of their young players like Scottie Barnes making a jump. This will be the first taste of the playoffs for this new Raptors squad, and they will hope to gain as much experience as they possibly can. For Cleveland, the true test will come in the later rounds, as the spotlight inevitably turns to Harden (for better or for worse).

Cavaliers in 5